Forecast analysis Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Forecast analysis - Essay Example Therefore, using the finding for Merica 1, these parameters are tightly fitted to the regression line, besides; the relationship is positive and strongly related. For that reason, in every real GDP forecasted, time and average price are strongly and positively affecting the real GDP and vice-versa. The adjusted R2showed the total variability accounted by the model. This refers to the proportion of finding the variables that the model would account for, or the proportion the model can explain. For Merica 1, the adjusted R2 was 0.99996. The value indicated that a significant percentage of the variables could b explained by the model (99.996%). The coefficient of determinant or estimate is defined as the rate at which conditional means change. Average price reported the highest changes in the conditional mean compared to other variables. However, time and real GDP reported negative value. Negative coefficient of determinants shows that the expected forecast of the dependent variable would be below zero when the independent or predictor variables were set at zero. The finding from this model indicates the presence of statistical significance linear dependency of the means for time, real GDP and average price. The standard errors are inferential statistics obtained by dividing standard deviation by the square root of the sample population. Therefore, the larger the error, the smaller the sample size, it is an estimate of the association between the sample population and the standard deviation. Real GDP reported the lowest standard error as opposed to the average price that had the highest error (smallest sample size). During the financial year 5, there was a sustained increase in the industry sales from 527000 units in the first quarter to 595000 in the second quarter for both Merica 1 and Merica 2. The value reduced to 550000 units in the third quarter but later increased to 719000units in the last quarter for both. The